Welcome to the Personal Website of Roger M Cooke (Mathematics and Philosophy) (last update Nov. 8, 2018)

NEW: Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity:

    combining disparate lines of evidence: Climatic Change 2018

with Blog and Video

NEW: Macro converting XL file to EXCALIBUR dtt file


Download publications from Resources for the Future website:

Resources for the Future Homepage Roger M Cooke

Download software

    UNINET non parametric continuous Bayesian Belief Nets

    UNICORN (UNIGRAPH, UNISENS) uncertainty analysis with correlations

    EXCALIBUR expert judgment calibration and information




Climate Change and the Confidence Trap 15 min podcast on the Confidence Trap

The Confidence Trap: dysfunctional dialogues about climate change  45 min video Grande Conference. U.Montreal Oct 18, 2017.

Willy Aspinall Explains Classical Model for Structured Expert Judgment, presented at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, May 23, 2017. This is a 1 hr intro to the Classical Model for Structured Expert Judgment for participating experts.

Combining disparate lines of evidence: This is a 10 minute video on using Bayesian Nets to combine disparate lines of evidence.

Dependence Elicitation for Ice Sheets. Non-Gaussian Multivariate Statistical Models and their Applications Banff 2013












Wikipedia pages

Structured Expert Judgment, the Classical Model

Vine Copula


Structured Expert Judgment Applications: Lists of Publications 1994 - 2017


CROSS Validation:  45 most recent studies graphic summaries

Selected Recent Publications

Expert Elicitation: Using the Classical Model to Validate Expertsí Judgments Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2018.

Knowing What We Face in an Uncertain Climate - Scientia 2018 for general public

Cross Validation of Structured Expert Judgment Post 2006 Studies, with Supplementary Online Material  Reliability Engineering  2017

Expert Judgment and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate Change Nature Climate Change Link 2016

Global Correlation and Uncertainty Accounting Dependence Modeling 2016

A commentary on "how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise" by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal, Climatic Change 2016

Structured Expert Judgment: WHO Global Burden of Disease PLOS ONE Mar 1, 2016

Suburban watershed nitrogen retention  Structured expert judgment assessment for the Chesapeake Bay,

Elementa 2015 DOI 10.12952/journal.elementa.000063

Messaging Climate Change Uncertainty Nature Climate Change Link, 2015

Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change 2014 Resources for the Future, material appeared in Nature Climate Change Jan. 2015, Vol. 5 No 1, P. 8-10.

Out of Sample Validation for Structured Expert Judgment 2014, Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management

        Supplementary Online Material

Sampling,  Conditionalizing, Counting, Merging & Searching Regular Vines  Journal of Multivariate Analysis 2015

Use of Structured Expert Judgment to Forecast Invasions by Bighead and Silver Carp in Lake Erie 2014 Conservation Biology

        Supplementary Online Material: calibration vbls A  classical model B elicitation protocol: C rationales: D


Validating Structured Expert Judgment 2014  Experts and Consensus in Social Science, Springer

Model Uncertainty in Economic Impacts of Climate Change:Bernoulli Versus Lotka Volterra Dynamics 2012 Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management

Ship Borne Invasive Species Diminish Eco-system Services (SEJ) 2012 Ecosystems

Value of information for climate observing systems 2012 Env. Sys and Decisions

Uncertainty Analysis Comes to Climate Change and Conversely 2012 Climatic Change

         Supplementary Online Material


Fat Tailed Distributions; data, diagnostics and dependence 2011 Resources for the Future


Vines and Non-parametric continuous BBNs, model learning 2011 Re-thinking Risk


Vines Arise 2010  Vine Copula Handbook


Micro Correlations and Tail Dependence 2010 Vine Copula Handbook


Modeling and Validating Stakeholder Preferences with Probabilistic Inversion  2010


The Unholy Trinity: fat tails, tail dependence and micro correlations 2009 Resources for the Future



Vintage Publications


TU Delft Expert Judgment Data Base 2008 RESS

        Response to comments


Social Network and Likelihood Weights 2008 RESS


The Anatomy of the Squizzel, the role of operational

definitions in representing uncertainty 2004,RESS vol 85, pp 313-319


Expert aggregation with dependence 2002 PSAM


Vines a new graphical model for dependent random variables 2002 Annals of Statistics

Probability density decomposition for conditionally dependent random variables modelled by Vines  2001 Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence

Procedures Guide for Structured Expert Judgment 2000  European Commission


Markov Tree and Vine Dependence 1997 ASA


Calibration and Information in Expert Resolution a Classical Approach1988 Automatica


An Elementary Proof of Gleason's Theorem, Proc Camb. Phil Soc (1985)



Discussion Papers


Real Option Value for New Measurements of Cloud Radiative Forcing, RFF, 2016


Vine Regression Nov 25, 2015


Averaging Quantiles  March 2015


Vines in 4 Pages Prose


Tail Dependence and Vines 2015-6-1


Essays, Religion, Philosophy, Foundations


3=7? 2016 Amazon Review of Islamic Exceptionalism


Tepid, Timid, Tragic, 2016 Amazon Review A GUIDE TO SHARIAH LAW and ISLAMIST IDEOLOGY in WESTERN EUROPE, by Stephen Suleyman Schwartz, Dr Irfan Al-Alawi


Even the Devil Loves his Friends and Hates his Enemies 2015 Amazon book review of Islam, Culture, and the Charlie Hebdo Affair


Helping God Express Himself 2015 Amazon review of Islam and the Future of Tolerance


Review of R. Fisk The Great War for Civilization 2014 Amazon book review


Jealous Gods...50 years hence 2011 invited (and rejected) contribution to a Mike Wallace book 50 Years Hence


A Number of Things  1995  Public address accepting chair in Dept Mathematics, TU Delft



Crib Sheet David Randall Atmosphere Clouds and Climate 2012


Crib Sheet David Archer Carbon Cycle 2010


Crib Sheet David Archer Long Thaw 2009


Crib Sheet Piketty Capital in 21st Century 2014



I'm Old Fashioned




public health claims



DATA from Structured Expert Judgment

53 SEJ studies pre 2009

33 SEJ studies post 2006

Curriculum vitae Roger M. Cooke